A soaking start to August in all grain producing States, except Queensland, has boosted hopes of Australia reaching average winter crop production.
In the same week as the National Australia Bank cut its wheat production forecast 2.5 per cent, or by 600,000 tonnes to 22.7 million tonnes based on rainfall to date, falls of up to 80 millimetres were recorded in coastal parts of southern Western Australia.
Possibly the most important falls were recorded in western New South Wales, where Grain Growers joint chief executive David McKeon said many farmers had recorded up to 40mm.
“It had been getting very dry in parts there so this rain is a real boost,” Mr KcKeon said.
In Victoria, Victorian Farmers Federation (VFF) vice president Brett Hosking, who farms in the southern Mallee, said conditions were currently close to ideal.
“We had 27mm at Quambatook last week and it is looking a picture,” Mr Hosking said.
“There are some small concerns with some later-sown crops after the dry June, but generally, if we get an average finish to the season we’d be hopeful of getting an above average crop.”
In WA, Miling producer Tony White, in the northern cropping zone, said the latest band of rain had him hoping to push towards an average season.
“The biggest problem was that everything was so late germinating,” Mr White said.
“Where we managed to get crop up earlier it looks quite good, but the later stuff will need a kind August and September to get close to average.”
However, concerns about long-term weather have been allayed somewhat, with the Bureau of Meteorology reporting that both an El Niño or an Indian Ocean Dipole positive event are becoming less likely this spring.
Both events are consistent with lower than average Australian rainfall.
Mr White said conditions were less favourable in the far north-eastern Wheatbelt in WA.
“I think guys there are struggling, whereas we still have a chance, there was good subsoil moisture put down with summer rainfall,” he said.
John Snooke, Meckering, said the nearby Great Eastern Highway was a handy reference in terms of crop condition.
“Those to the north are by and large struggling and to the south there are some good crops,” Mr Snooke said.
“Where we are it is OK, there has been a significant turnaround since the start of July.
“At the end of June we thought we may get virtually nothing, while it still looks like being below average it appears there will be some crop to harvest.”